Support a high scoring match
Perth Scorchers vs. Hobart Hurricanes
Monday, 08:15 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
Covid continues to impact the sporting calendar, possibly with significant implications for Big Bash favorites Perth Scorchers. In light of the new restrictions, they will now play all of their games away from home. In this case, repeat the game from six days ago at Blundstone Arena.
Scorchers still post a 100% record
In truth, that can’t really be considered a negative as they beat Hobart easily by 53 points and have now won their last four games against these opponents. Bidding to maintain a 100% record, their pre-match odds are prohibitive 1.674/6, and that despite a significant throw the bias to this land.
Without a doubt, the Scorchers look very strong and, for now at least, appreciate the fact that their best players haven’t been called up for the Ashes serve. Mitchell Marsh’s 60-ball invincibility ton, however, must increase his chances while Marcus Harris’s vulnerability in the opener role could still give Josh Inglis a chance. Losing those two would likely have more of an impact on their title hopes than losing the home advantage (whatever its value).
Mills is a great signing
On the bowling side, Tymal Mills could well prove to be the signing of the season. His 3-23 in his debut was typical, following some strong death bowling efforts in the World Cup and The Hundred. If you stay in shape, Mills is a big plus for Scorchers.
Beware of taking those little pre-game odds on them today, though. Perth may be undefeated so far, but such races rarely last in T20 franchise cricket. That they hammered Hobart a few days ago is by no means a signal that they will do it again.
Hurricanes too capable of rejecting
There is a lot to like about these opponents. Their first-rate triumvarat by D’Arcy Short, Matthew Wade and Ben McDermott are bursting with class. Joël Paris started well, improving an already solid and well-varied attack. Tim David has made great finishing efforts in various franchises in 2021. They remain very present on my radar because title contenders as the season progresses.
Additionally, we have to consider the possibility that Perth had a major advantage in that last game. 11 of the last 13 games at Blundstone Arena have gone to batting first.
Beats first, a score of 170 is the key to success
A notable clue for the ongoing trade is that all of those 11 successful defenders hit over 170 in their first innings. The bottom two totals from the first innings have been kicked out.
It is a relatively high score field, with totals and limits above the average for the first rounds. Admittedly, the scores of the second round rarely match the first ones, but I think the ‘Both to score“The odds are pretty good.
From “Both to Score 170/180/190/200”, the respective odds are 4/1, 9/1, 19/1 and 40/1. Seems too big, considering the odds in the second round. For example, if Hobart hit 180, Perth would have nothing to do with 9/1 to chase him away. Rather 2/1.
Both for scoring can work as a back-to-lay
Therefore, while this bet is recommended as simple for the purposes of the chronicle, a good alternative strategy is to try it as a back-to-lay, re-evaluating the situation after the first innings or during the chase, once that we know if the first 180 have been landed.
While rare, this target has won in three of the last 27 games at Blundstone Arena, and I’d say it’s a better opportunity for them to land than most games. Scorchers and Hurricanes have the power, especially up front, to pursue such totals.
For Top Team Runscorer, the two improved odds are Mitchell Marsh, at 5/2 for Scorchers, and Matthew Wade at 3/1 for Hurricanes.
A trio of drummers for the Man of the Match
Given the high scoring expectations, I think batsmen will have an advantage in the man of the match market. 5/1 about Marsh reflects his luck. Ditto 7/1 for the pair of Hurricanes D’Arcy Short and Matthew Wade.
At the stated odds of 12/1 and 17/1, Josh Inglis and Cameron Bancroft look better value for money. For Hobart, also add Tim David to 20/1. All of them are likely to have an impact on winning in their turn at some point, so I’m happy to take the bigger odds now.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty