Pandemic, war and economic sanctions: from turbulent globalization to conflictual globalization – OpEd – Eurasia Review
The COVID-19 pandemic, the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the economic sanctions against Russia because of this war have followed one another. All these events are global in nature and have therefore affected globalization processes.
Two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is possible to summarize the accumulated experience of the actions of national governments and international organizations on the issue of responding to the challenges of the pandemic. The fact is that national governments and international organizations unfortunately proved unprepared at the onset of the pandemic. Moreover, they found themselves in some confusion due to the unexpected and rapid spread of the coronavirus. The uncoordinated actions of national governments against the rapid infection of the population with the coronavirus, as well as the passivity of international organizations, contributed to the formation of an opinion on the beginning of the completion of the globalization process. It is also worth recalling here that even before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, efforts to stimulate the process of de-globalization were initiated by US President Donald Trump (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/ 2017/01/jeffrey-sachs-global-cooperation-is-the-only-way-forward-for-the-us/). In this context of de-globalization, we can also think of the famous Brexit.
Lockdowns imposed by many national governments have directly affected the breaks in global supply and value chains that are characteristic of isolationist processes (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-cooperation-can- prevent-next-pandemic -by-kemal-dervis-and-sebasti-n-strauss-2020-03?barrier=accesspaylog).
It should be emphasized that, given the global nature of the pandemic, overcoming it on the basis of isolationism is fundamentally impossible (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-coronavirus-failure-of- small-government -by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2020-03?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=cba7e1c6a1-sunday_newsletter_15_03_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-cba7e1c6a1-93567601&mc_cid=cba7e1c6a1&mc_eid=e9fb6cbcc0). Following simple logic, exiting the pandemic as a global phenomenon is only possible with maximum coordination of actions by national governments and international organizations (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/universal -free-covid19 -vaccine-by-mariana-mazzucato-and-els-torreele-2020-04?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=64d8372856-sunday_newsletter_03_05_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-64d8372856-93567601&mc_cid=64d8372856&mc_eid=e9fb6cbcc0). Naturally, the post-pandemic development of the economy in the context of de-globalization, let alone isolationism, is inherently impossible (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-crisis-revive-multilateralism -open -trade-by-victor-k-fung-2020-04?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=871db40e9f-sunday_newsletter_26_04_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-871db40e9f-93567601&mc_cid=871db40e9f&mc_eid=e9fb6cbcc0).
Therefore, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a process of pseudo rather than true de-globalization (https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102021-on-pseudo-de-globalization-silk- road-of-global-value-chains-and-role-of-georgia-oped/).
Based on the above, soon after the manifestation of the process of pseudo de-globalization, the question of the appearance of a new “wave” of globalization, which will raise the process of globalization to a higher and significantly improved level, arises. is placed on the agenda (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-de-globalization-two-priorities-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2020-05?utm_source=Project% 20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=3ce69c95d3- sunday_newsletter_17_05_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-3ce69c95d3-93567601&mc_cid=3ce69c95d3&mc_eid=e9fb6cbcc0). Even in the context of the pandemic, it was clear that in the so-called renewed globalization, economic problems, especially energy (https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/event-documents/ESCAP_77_17_E.pdf ) and food security (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/four-ways-to-boost-food-security-during-covid19-pandemic-by-tony-blair-and-agnes-kalibata-2020 – 05?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=2ad6876daf-sunday_newsletter_10_05_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-2ad6876daf-93567601&mc_cid=2ad6876daf&mcb6=e9f) would take an important place
In other words, pseudo-de-globalization has manifested itself in a kind of disorder in the process of globalization that can be described as turbulent globalization.
The development and large-scale distribution of coronavirus vaccines has been of great importance in reducing the turbulence of globalization.
Officially, the WHO has not declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic because on February 24, 2022, Russia launched a war in Ukraine. Soon after, the West imposed economic sanctions against Russia.
This war not only fundamentally changed the contours of the global economy (https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/russias-war-and-the-global-economy-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-02 ) but caused a change in the established world order (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine-economy-sanctions.html). This process has become even more complicated under the conditions of the economic sanctions adopted against Russia as they have directly affected the global nature of the world economy (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-consequences-of -ukraine-war-by-jason-furman-2022-02). Large-scale economic sanctions (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659), for their part, require rethinking many accepted understandings of economics about how the global economy works in the context of these sanctions (https://www.eurasiareview.com/14032022-on-sanctionomics-oped/).
Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions against Russia, the process of transforming the architecture of the world economy has begun (https://www.eurasiareview.com/31032022 -on-the-main-challenges-of-the -architecture-transformation-de-l-économie-mondiale-oped/). A distinctive feature of this process is the relative fragmentation of the world economy into countries that adhere to economic sanctions against Russia, into countries that are allies of Russia (this is mainly Belarus) and into countries that maintain a certain neutrality in this conflicting economic pattern (in particular, Israel, Turkey, China, India, etc.).
The adversarial nature of the modern global economy first manifested itself in the onset of significant difficulties, primarily in energy (https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-is-changing-energy-geopolitics -177903) and food sectors (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/19/ukraine-war-has-stoked-global-food-crisis-that-could-last-years-says-un ), which ultimately contributed to the emergence of a deficit in the global economy (https://www.eurasiareview.com/24032022-bracing-for-the-era-of-economic-shortage-analysis/). It is no coincidence that, due to the shortage, first of all, of food, caused by the conflicting nature of modern world processes, the so-called “food war” takes place (https://www. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/rising-food-prices-ukraine-russia-war/626967/). For the same reason there is an “oil war” (https://www.eurasiareview.com/20052022-the-oil-war-facing-eu-embargo-russia-targeted-ukraines-supplies-analysis/) .
It follows from the above that against the backdrop of an unfinished pandemic, war and economic sanctions, the world economy is going through difficult times, the main characteristic of which is now confrontationalism. Questions arise as to the compatibility of confrontation and globalization and whether confrontation prevents globalization.
The inferiority of the economic sanctions against Russia manifests itself in two forms: a) Some EU countries continue to buy Russian energy sources simultaneously with the introduction of these sanctions against Russia (https://www .france24.com/fr/business/20220405- baltic-states-end-russian-gas-imports-%E2%80%93-but-the-rest-of-europe-follow the step) and b) Many countries of the world, as noted above, did not join the sanctions against Russia.
Thus, the adversarial nature of the modern global economy does not mean the end of globalization. It would be more correct to call this process of changing globalization with a new term – conflicting globalization.
Consequently, the turbulent globalization caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has been replaced by conflicting globalization following the Russian war against Ukraine and the economic sanctions against Russia.
Just as after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, globalization was to be updated to a new level, as mentioned above, conflicting globalization will inevitably give way to “better globalization” (https://www .project-syndicate.org/commentary/after-hyperglobalization-national-interests-open-economy-by-dani-rodrik-2022-05) whose contours will be formed in the process of completing the Ukrainian crisis (https:/ /www.eurasiareview.com/15052022 -three-months-in-the-war-russia-ukraine-analysis-of-four-potential-results/).