At least four canoes reached the shore of Dungeness in Kent on Sunday, carrying dozens of people desperate to reach Britain before worsening winter conditions made the crossing impossible. This last group of arrivals will be added to the 24,700 migrants who have already crossed the Channel in small boats this year, tripled the 8,404 who arrived in 2020.

“There will be more on the way,” said one eye-witness told the Sunday Times. “It’s absolutely calm conditions and the weather is getting more volatile next week, so I expect them to know that they need to make the most of this last weather window.”

Fleeing despair at home, many migrants who make this uncertain journey come from countries plagued by conflict, such as Yemen, Eritrea and Sudan. But as volatility continues to dominate Libya’s political climate, a new wave of migrants could soon arrive.

This fear is exacerbated by reports that the incumbent Libyan Prime Minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, has applied for the presidency. His candidacy has been called into question by a series of allegations that he is involved in corrupt practices, money laundering and funding of ideological Islamists.

One of the most shocking allegations, revealed by a recent UN investigationis that Dbeibeh came to power after his supporters offered bribes of up to $ 200,000 to garner votes during the UN dialogue forum process. The other candidates in the next elections on December 24 offers Libya little prospect of political stability either.

“Libya is supposed to move into a new democratic phase, where the people can choose a president, a very important transition after 10 years of fragmentation,” said Abdelkader Assad, the editor-in-chief of The Libya Observer and Libya Alahrar English. “Yet the list of candidates includes former ministers and officials, some war criminals… and some people motivated by the foreign agenda. “

The inscription on the ballot paper is General Khalifa Haftar, a leading figure in the east of the country who has been accused of war crimes and launched a year-long assault on Tripoli, making it almost impossible for those in the west of the country to accept.

Other candidates include Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, the son of the country’s former dictator, Muammar Gadhafi. Saif, who has spent the last decade out of public view since his capture in 2011 by fighters in Zintan, is currently the subject of an ICC arrest warrant for crimes against humanity.

The candidates are not the only problems plaguing the upcoming Libyan elections. Indeed, questions abound as to whether the Libyan authorities can organize free and fair elections. This follows concerns on Libya’s restrictive laws that undermine freedom of expression and association, as well as the presence of armed groups accused of intimidating, attacking and detaining journalists and political activists.

As questions continue to surround the legitimacy of the upcoming elections in December, fears grow that more instability looms on the horizon. Indeed, concerns have been expressed about the risk of a return to violence and further fragmentation in Libya if the country fails to fairly elect a leader fully committed to creating an inclusive country built on a solid institutional framework. .

In light of Libya’s recent history, it is clear that political stability and strong governance are needed more than ever.

Indeed, since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has succumbed to economic uncertainty, militia violence, foreign intervention and a civil war that has divided control of Libya into disparate centers of power. .

As tribal regimes and political groups competed to fill the power vacuum created by Gaddafi’s death, a major conflict erupted between two groups: The Libyan National Army (LNA) led by former Army General Khalifa Haftar, and the Government of National Accord (GNA), a United Nations initiative.

Hence what has been described by Alessia Melcangi, principal researcher at the Atlantic Council, as “a period of deep instability and chaos”, the conflict has taken a heavy toll on the Libyan civilian population. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that 1.3 million people are currently in need of humanitarian assistance, with more than 200,000 Libyans internally displaced.

Libya’s reconciliation and reunification will not take place until elections take place as scheduled on December 24. But many seriously doubt that they will be.

With Libya facing a real risk of political instability, Europe must prepare for a new wave of Libyan migrants who feel they have no choice but to make the dangerous journey across the Mediterranean.

Yet all hope is not lost. With almost five weeks to go before the election, increased engagement by the international community to ensure that the elections are held under free and fair conditions would go a long way in securing Libya’s future and preventing the looming humanitarian crisis.