FORT COLLINS, Colo., Jan. 3 (Reuters) – In the last two weeks of 2021, speculators staged their biggest soybean buying streak in more than a year as dry weather in South America sent Chicago futures at five-month highs. This follows countless weeks of optimism perhaps forced into oilseeds as investors increased their appetites for corn and soybean meal.

Forecasts point to persistent dry weather for soybeans and corn in Argentina and southern Brazil over the next two weeks, although traders are weighing the crop risks against lackluster export demand for the produce. Americans.

During the week ended December 28, fund managers increased their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 98,080 contracts, from 72,924 a week earlier and 40,975 two weeks earlier. early. This is based on data released Monday by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

This marked the most bullish view of soybean funds since mid-June, and entry of new long positions was the largest in the past two weeks. Fund managers were much more enthusiastic at the end of 2020 with a net long position in soybeans at nearly 200,000 futures and options.

But they’re more excited about corn than a year ago, as their long net stood at 373,345 futures and options as of December 28, compared to 332,045 exactly a year earlier. The last position is the most optimistic of funds since the end of April and represents a gain of around 13,000 contracts over the week.

On December 28, the most active CBOT corn futures contracts reached a six-month high of $ 6.17-3 / 4 a bushel, but the contract ended at $ 5.89-1 / 4 Monday under pressure from a heavy wheat market and slowing US corn exports. This price is 22% above a year ago.

The most active soybeans were only up 3% from a year ago, ending at 13.55-1 / 2 a bushel on Monday. Soybeans have slipped nearly 1% in the past four sessions but corn is down 2.6%.

Investors are increasingly interested in new prospects for South American crops, but the main attraction ahead is the supply and demand of the US Department of Agriculture, crop production, quarterly stocks and stakes. winter wheat area update to come on January 12th. This data dump could define the market. tone for the weeks and months to come.

SOY AND WHEAT PRODUCTS

The U.S. soybean meal market has been noticeably tight in recent months, but accelerating crop concerns in Argentina, the main exporter of soybean products, have pushed futures contracts to their highest levels since may.

The most active soybean meal futures jumped nearly 5% in the week ended December 28, and fund managers increased their net long position to 61,162 futures and options, from 50,551 the previous week and 40,534 two weeks before.

The funds’ long position was close to 90,000 contracts a year ago, although soybean meal futures are currently 3% lower. The most active contract closed on Monday at $ 411.30 a short ton, its highest level since May 17 and up 33% since the October lows.

Soybean oil futures are up 34% from a year ago, although funds are currently less than half as bullish with a net long at 45,394 futures and options at Dec. 28 compared to nearly 113,000 at the end of 2020. Futures contracts rose 5.1% in the last week, but fund managers only added 6,316 contracts to their long net, mostly on a short cover.

CBOT wheat is the only grain or oilseed for which speculators have pessimistic views. The most active contract fell nearly 2% through December 28, although fund managers increased their net selling from less than 800 to 11,773 futures and options.

CBOT wheat stood at $ 7.58 a bushel on Monday, down 3.3% in the past four sessions, as concerns about global supply have eased in recent weeks. Monday’s slowdown was helped by weak US wheat exports and a stronger dollar threatening to prolong the fall in demand. Chicago wheat is 18% more expensive than a year ago.

March wheat futures in Minneapolis hit $ 9.64-3 / 4 a bushel on Monday, the lowest since October 20. Kansas City wheat finished at $ 7.91-1 / 2, the first close below $ 8 in nearly three weeks. Spring wheat is trading 62% higher than a year ago and hard red winter wheat 32% higher.

Both of those contracts fell more than 2% in the week ended December 28, but fund managers added around 600 contracts to their long net KC, which reached 59,406 futures and options. They cut their Minneapolis long net to 12,030 from 13,178 a week earlier, and the new position is at its 20-week low.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters and the views expressed above are her own.

Editing by Matthew Lewis

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